Wind AlliesTier 3
at Ascent Akihabara
decks
11
(1.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
93
39-50-4
overall winrate
44.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.1%
avg ELO +0.4 per match
expected value
44.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1252
· median 1210
· range 1069–1543
(11 pilots with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1204
Q3 1418
1736
27% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
45% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 15.6% | 13 | 5-7-1 | 42.3% | 44.1% | 48.3% | -0.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 9 | 3-6-0 | 33.3% | 38.5% | 43.4% | -3.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.8% | 12 | 4-7-1 | 37.5% | 40.6% | 42.6% | -3.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.9% | -8.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.3% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 54.5% | +2.3 |
| Water Genbu | 4.4% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.7% | +3.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 58.6% | +4.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.6% | +4.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 62.5% | +8.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 31.9% | -13.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.2% | +6.9 |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.7% | +5.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 43.9% | -3.5 |
| Water Fractal | 2.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 44.1% | -5.7 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.8% | +5.6 |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.8% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 23.3% | -19.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.8% | +20.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.2% | -10.3 |
| Fire Suited | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.2 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.3% | +24.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.5 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 0.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.3% | +24.5 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 11 from this event
The 11 public Wind Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
